12-19-2024
Incoming President Trump campaigned on his plan for the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. Immigrants perform many jobs in essential industries like construction, agriculture, technology, and health care. These industries have struggled to find domestic workers to fill the positions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that immigrants comprise 18.6% of the 2023 workforce (CNBC).
Employers in industries where immigrants fill critical positions are scrambling to plan. A nonprofit, nonpartisan immigrant organization warns American employers that they will “feel the strain on labor costs” and that the U.S. will lose the fight for labor. California, where one in three workers is an immigrant, hopes for agricultural immigration reform to address its chronic employee shortages. It wants to ease employment barriers for workers to fill these farm positions. If farms close because of limited labor, the U.S. will rely more on food from overseas.
The Trump campaign is underplaying the impact of its deportation plan. It claims that while Trump will create the “largest deportation operation” in U.S. history, he will “simultaneously” lower costs for families and strengthen the workforce. Many economists question whether the workforce can be strengthened in the face of significant deportations. A Brookings Institution study estimated that Trump’s proposed policy could reduce 2025 GDP by $30 billion to $110 billion. Researchers also stated, “The consequences of a more extreme mass deportation policy would be economically disruptive in unpredictable ways.” With big reductions in labor supply, companies will face increased costs in providing goods and services. These increased costs will likely lead to higher inflation and consumer costs.